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A research report released today by Robin Farley of UBS Investments confirms what cruise industry insiders have known for some time – that cruise prices to Alaska and Europe have been sinking fast and currently represent some of the greatest vacation values in the market.

According to the report, “Alaska pricing appears to be under the most pressure and could be further impacted as Norwegian Cruise Line is beginning a major promotional campaign for Alaska in the next week or two. The U.S.-sourced European trade is also declining but not at as rapid a rate.”

The UBS Cruise Pricing Survey tracks pricing across various itineraries and brands, and analyzes pricing year-over-year on a week-to-week basis. Among several things, it shows that cruise fares have been dropping as the sailing date approaches, which indicates discounting has been necessary to fill ships to respectable levels.

The report notes that price discounting has been successful in so much as passenger bookings for several cruise lines have been up, albeit at lower prices. For example, bookings at Carnival Cruise Line have been up by 12% since mid-January versus the same period last year. And at Princess Cruises, bookings have been up by 6% during Wave Season (January to mid-February) over the same period last year.

What does this mean for cruise lines and the travelling public?

For cruise lines, it means declining levels of profitability as they compete to fill ships with lower prices. The majors are still making money, but not nearly as much as they should, which is impacting their stock values. For example, Carnival stock reached an all-time low in November of 2008, and is currently trading at its lowest average quarterly enterprise value per berth in the last 10 years. Investors know they are charging too little for their cruises.

For the small and niche market cruise lines, some of whom struggle even in good times, the impact could be worse. For example, they might have to sell some assets, restructure or even seek bankruptcy protection if the price war gets too crazy and prolonged.

For the vacationing public, it means that fares on cruises to Alaska, trans-Atlantic, and through all regions of Europe are being offered at price levels not seen for many years.  And these deals are likely to extend into the fall Caribbean season, which from August to November is traditionally weak anyway due to the threat of hurricanes.

So if you’ve ever thought about taking a cruise to Alaska or Europe, you may want to do it this year. While it may pain the cruise industry to admit it, they have slashed fares to incredibly low levels to get you up the gangplank. It’s not a great scenario for cruise line investors, but it’s a great deal for people who love to vacation at sea, and one that may not be repeated again in the future.

Carnival Cruises is holding a one-day sale today where cruises to the Caribbean, Mexico, Alaska and more are being offered at amazingly low prices. In addition, the cruise line is guaranteeing that these sale prices will be the lowest offered on these particular sailings.

Amazing deals! Lowest price guarantees! If all this is starting to sound like a day at Wal-Mart, perhaps Carnival is on to something here.

In the good old days (remember those?), it seemed that cruise lines could hardly keep pace with the increase in people taking cruise vacations. The industry was growing at an impressive 4% a year, and new ships were coming out of dry dock at a dizzying pace.

But today things are a bit different. The new ships are still coming on stream and have to be filled, but travelers are being more frugal. They still want to take a vacation with their family and experience the world, but they want to do it for less, and in some cases, far less.

Enter Carnival with its Wal-Martesque approach to selling cruises.

Like Wal-Mart, Carnival prides itself in always offering very competitive pricing. And like any consumer goods retailer, Carnival understands that moving inventory in slow periods sometimes requires a compelling offer that is so good that it’s hard to resist.

That’s the kind of deal Carnival is offering for just one day – today! And we expect to see other great “sales” from its competitors as they remain in the fight for market share.

So has Carnival borrowed a page from the Wal-Mart marketing manual? I don’t know. But as long as they keep offering these kinds of great deals, their shipboard greeters are going to be very busy.

It’s been a busy 2009 when it comes to the media.

Since January 1, Tripharbour has launched a major advertising campaign, issued five news releases and participated in dozens of media interviews across North America. And whether it’s a question about cruising or insights into the latest travel trends, it seems that more and more reporters have discovered that Tripharbour is the place to go for the knowledgeable and trusted commentary they need.

For example, just this week I was interviewed about cruising on Radio Station 580 CFRA in Ottawa (You can listen to it at http://snurl.com/ckhmi). I’ve also begun writing a monthly column called “ports of call” for a local Toronto community newspaper, and will be putting pen to paper soon on two magazine articles about cruising.

In addition, Tripharbour CEO and founder Stuart MacDonald has appeared in dozens of print, radio and online stories about cruising and travel. These stories have appeared in major publications in the U.S. such as the Boston Globe and the Denver Post, as well as in prominent Canadian media such as the Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, and National Post.  And Tripharbour has been included in a large number of radio and online travel stories including with Radio Station 680 in Toronto, and online with MSNBC in New York.

But you don’t need to wait until our next media appearance to find the cruise you’ve always wanted. Just send in your questions or comments directly to us, and we’ll give you the same knowledgeable and insightful answers that media have come to expect from North America’s most innovative online cruise community, planning, and buying site.

The bitterly cold weather sweeping through Canada and most of the northerly U.S. states has been good news for cruise ships plying the warm waters of the Caribbean and the Mexican Riviera.  

Just a few weeks ago there were plenty of cruise cabins available for January and February. But shortly into the New Year a blast of cold Arctic air came swirling south, and guess what happened?  Tons of frost-bitten families decided it was time to escape the freezer and they scooped up lots of attractively priced cabins on cruises to warmer climes.

What does that mean if you’re not one of the lucky ones who have already booked a warm-weather winter cruise?   

If you don’t already have a cabin booked for the next 45 days, you are going to have to be a lot more flexible about when you sail, what type of cabin you get, and where you sail to and from. And it’s highly unlikely prices are going to get any lower if you wait.  

It also means that if you were thinking of taking a warm-weather cruise in March or April, you better make a booking soon. While inventory is still good for those months, cabins are selling briskly as a result of attractive prices and the continuing cold weather. So the best choices, selection and prices will start to dry up soon.

In fact, cruise lines will likely shift their marketing and incentive dollars away from the Caribbean and Mexican destinations in about a month, and start focusing on selling cruises to Alaska and Europe. Some lines like Crystal, Silversea and Regent have already begun to focus on those markets. 

So if the cold weather is getting you down and you’d like to escape aboard a luxury liner to the warm waters of the Caribbean and Mexican Riviera, don’t wait too long to make a decision. If you do, you might just miss the boat!

The beautiful and elegant Queen Mary 2 turned five years old yesterday, so it seemed like a good time to wish the grande dame of the seas a very Happy Birthday. Boy, it seems like just yesterday that she was being launched to a media frenzy with much fanfare, pomp and circumstance at Southampton in jolly olde England.

In honour of this festive occasion, Cunard is offering special fares and incentives to lure people up the gangplank. These specials include $100 shipboard credits for balcony and grill staterooms, special anniversary pricing, and a number of new onboard features such as Wi-Fi connectivity in all staterooms and cell phone service throughout much of the ship. However, in order to benefit from the special fares and credits, cruises must be booked by February 12, 2009.

Some of the specially-priced cruises (in US dollars) include:

Trans-Atlantic cruises starting at $745;

Mediterranean cruises starting at $1,595;

Northern European cruises starting at $1,599;

New England / Canada cruises starting at $1,395; and,

Caribbean cruises starting at $1,195.

I sailed on the QM2 a few years ago on one of its Labour Day Weekend 4-day mini-cruises roundtrip from New York to Halifax, Canada. I remember being impressed by the beautiful décor of the ship, and particularly by her marvelous public rooms. It’s no surprise that the readers of Travel Weekly magazine have selected this grand dame of the seas as “Best luxury ship” every year since her debut in 2004.

Since the retirement of the QE2, the Queen Mary 2 has been the fastest and grandest ship afloat.  Since her launch five years ago, the QM2 has sailed almost 750,000 nautical miles, completed 104 Atlantic crossings (the route for which she was specifically built, the first passenger ship to be built for that trade in 35 years), and made calls to 115 ports in 45 countries. She is spending her fifth birthday in the Caribbean.

To mark her fifth birthday, Queen Mary 2 will undertake a “lap of honour” around the UK departing from Southampton on October 15, 2009. This will be her first voyage around Britain, a journey that became so popular for QE2 to undertake as crowds came out to welcome her in every port. It is expected that Queen Mary 2, as the flagship of the British merchant fleet, should continue this Cunard tradition. This voyage will feature maiden calls for Queen Mary 2 at Greenock and Liverpool - ports which have close historic ties with Cunard.

So as the QM2 celebrates her first five years, I’d like to say “many happy returns, and best wishes for a long life at sea.”

 

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